The longest NFL work stoppage prior to the 2011 lockout was 57 days in 1982. That number has been far surpassed, and in fact, this lockout has now exceeded 100 days. There does seem to be an end in sight, though ESPN’s Chris Mortensen said he has only “cautious optimism” on the June 23 edition of Mike and Mike in the Morning, and that fans should “guard their hearts.” Should the NFL owners and players come to an agreement by mid-July, all aspects of the preseason and regular season schedules would not be impacted, but this does not mean that the fantasy football season would not be affected.
During the lockout, players and coaches are not permitted to be in contact or use team facilities for workouts and practices. The teams that this will affect most are those with new coaches and uncertainty at the quarterback position. Teams with new head coaches this season are:
1. Oakland Raiders (Hue Jackson)
2. Denver Broncos (John Fox)
3. Cleveland Browns (Pat Shurmer)
4. Carolina Panthers (Ron Rivera)
5. San Francisco 49ers (Jim Harbaugh)
New coaches mean implementing a new system, which takes time to start functioning on all cylinders. The longer the lockout lasts, the less time available for teams to practice. This is not to say that players on these teams are not worth drafting, but you should also have “cautious optimism” that marquee players will perform as expected during the first few weeks of the season. This includes Darren McFadden, Brandon Lloyd, Knowshon Moreno, Peyton Hillis, Steve Smith, Vernon Davis, and Frank Gore.
Teams with competition at the quarterback position or that have just drafted a quarterback to serve as their starter are also prone to sputter on offense, particularly during the first few weeks of the season. (See Steve Smith’s mediocre year in 2010 while the Panthers rotated quarterbacks.) Teams that fall into this category are:
1. Carolina Panthers (drafted Cam Newton)
2. Tennessee Titans (drafted Jake Locker)
3. Minnesota Vikings (drafted Christian Ponder)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (competition between David Garrard and newly drafted Blaine Gabbert)
5. Buffalo Bills (competition between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm)
6. Cleveland Browns (competition between Jake Delhomme and Colt McCoy)
7. Oakland Raiders (competition between Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski)
8. Denver Broncos (competition between Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow)
9. Seattle Seahawks (competition between Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst)
10. Arizona Cardinals (open competition)
11. Miami Dolphins (open competition)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (Carson Palmer threatening retirement)
Some of the situations are more stable than others, as it is likely that Garrard, Fitzpatrick, Orton, and Hasselbeck will be the opening day starters for their respective teams. As you begin to compile your draft list for the 2011 fantasy football season, not only should you be wary of these teams’ quarterback positions themselves, but how that volatility will affect other players on offense.
I look for Tim Tebow to become the starter this year. I also think Hasselbeck will be the starter until he gets hurt and then Charlie Whitehurst will get his shot!
ReplyDeleteThe Cardinals need to make a trade for a good QB! Marc Bulger would make a good one for them I think.
ReplyDeleteThe talk around the league is that Kevin Kolb is available and Arizona seems to be the popular consensus for his landing place. Donovan McNabb is another guy that's available, but he looks to be a better fit with Minnesota.
ReplyDeleteTebow is likely to start the season as the backup, but the organization is pushing to prove that Tebow was worth the first round draft pick. Any falter from Orton will open the door for sure.