Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Week 5 Three G's


It’s bye-week time. This is what separates the contenders from the pretenders. Starting 4-0 doesn’t mean much if you can’t make the right decisions for replacement players from weeks 5-11. Hopefully my advice will help propel you to the next level.

QB
1.       Gimme: Philip Rivers—Aaron Rodgers’ stat line last week: over 400 yards passing, 4 passing TD, 2 rushing TD. That game was against Denver.
2.       Game-Changer: Matt Ryan—I’ll be the first to tell you that Green Bay’s defense is susceptible to the pass, especially since losing pro-bowl safety Nick Collins for the season.
3.       Gamble: Curtis Painter—This is a bit of a stretch, but he is playing at home and it’s versus Kansas City (23rd in fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks). He works for a bye-week fill-in, and I like him better this week than Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, and Matt Hasselbeck.

RB
1.       Gimme: Fred Jackson—He is for real, and it is well-documented how horrible Philly is stopping the run. Their linebackers can’t cover the pass either, and Jackson is involved heavily in that department.
2.       Game-Changer: Darren Sproles—He has officially moved up from the “Gamble” category as more and more people put him in the starting lineup. Matt Forte plowed Carolina’s defense last week, and I like Sproles just a tick more than Mark Ingram because of his involvement in the passing game.
3.       Gamble: C.J. Spiller—He’s been lackluster at best from a fantasy perspective, but it’s the Eagles. (See Fred Jackson)

WR
1.       Gimme: DeSean Jackson—I started to get a little worried after a relatively slow start to the season, but he got more involved in the offense last week. Buffalo has been known to get into a few shootouts, which involves lots of points for the opposing wide receivers.
2.       Game-Changer: Percy Harvin—Finally, a double-digit fantasy day in week four. I’ll temper my expectations a bit because he plays for Minnesota, but he’s at home against a leaky pass defense this week.
3.       Gamble:  Julio Jones—This is the week to start him. Green Bay will score points, and it’s going to be up to Atlanta to try and hang with them. If Matt Ryan has to attempt 40+ passes, at least ten will be targeted for Jones.

TE
1.       Gimme: Vernon Davis—Not the best season so far, but his productivity increased last week. Tampa is middle of the pack versus opposing tight ends, but I like seeing more involvement from Davis in the 49ers offense.
2.       Game-Changer: Tony Gonzalez—I’m still not understanding the preseason predictions that his performance would take some huge hit from previous seasons. Green Bay has been improving their defense against opposing tight ends, but it’s still not very good. The only reason not to start Gonzalez is if you have him backing up Jermichael Finley, Owen Daniels, and maybe Jimmy Graham. (Jason Witten is on bye this week.)
3.       Gamble: Greg Olsen—I was right about him last week, and I’m sticking with him here. I don’t like him as much playing on the road, but his stock increases with the chance that Jeremy Shockey won’t play this week.

D/ST
1.       Gimme: 49ers D/ST—They are not owned in enough leagues as it is, and they could easily fit into the “Game-Changer” category, but I don’t like the matchups for the top defenses this week. I’ve noticed somewhat of a slow, methodical approach from Tampa, and that usually means less points scored. The downside of this matchup is that the Bucs don’t turn the ball over much or allow many sacks.
2.       Game-Changer: Giants D/ST—This should be the most commonly picked-up defense to cover for your bye week, or if you have a top defense you don’t trust this week (Jets).
3.       Gamble: Titans D/ST—If you get a chance to watch the Steelers play offense, it’s almost laughable how quickly the opposing defensive line engulfs Big Ben. This matchup looks even better if Ben can’t play this week.

Kicker Pickup of the Week: Jay Feely—Minnesota gave up 21 points to a kicker last week, and didn’t look very good doing it. I’m picking the matchup here more than the kicker himself.

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