It’s bye-week time. This is what separates the contenders
from the pretenders. Starting 4-0 doesn’t mean much if you can’t make the right
decisions for replacement players from weeks 5-11. Hopefully my advice will
help propel you to the next level.
QB
1.
Gimme: Philip
Rivers—Aaron Rodgers’ stat line last week: over 400 yards passing, 4
passing TD, 2 rushing TD. That game was against Denver.
2.
Game-Changer:
Matt Ryan—I’ll be the first to tell you that Green Bay’s defense is
susceptible to the pass, especially since losing pro-bowl safety Nick Collins
for the season.
3.
Gamble: Curtis
Painter—This is a bit of a stretch, but he is playing at home and it’s
versus Kansas City (23rd in fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks). He works for a bye-week fill-in, and I like him better this week
than Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, and Matt Hasselbeck.
RB
1.
Gimme: Fred
Jackson—He is for real, and it is well-documented how horrible Philly is
stopping the run. Their linebackers can’t cover the pass either, and Jackson is
involved heavily in that department.
2.
Game-Changer:
Darren Sproles—He has officially moved up from the “Gamble” category as
more and more people put him in the starting lineup. Matt Forte plowed Carolina’s
defense last week, and I like Sproles just a tick more than Mark Ingram because
of his involvement in the passing game.
3.
Gamble: C.J.
Spiller—He’s been lackluster at best from a fantasy perspective, but it’s
the Eagles. (See Fred Jackson)
WR
1.
Gimme: DeSean
Jackson—I started to get a little worried after a relatively slow start to
the season, but he got more involved in the offense last week. Buffalo has been
known to get into a few shootouts, which involves lots of points for the
opposing wide receivers.
2.
Game-Changer:
Percy Harvin—Finally, a double-digit fantasy day in week four. I’ll temper
my expectations a bit because he plays for Minnesota, but he’s at home against
a leaky pass defense this week.
3.
Gamble: Julio
Jones—This is the week to start him. Green Bay will score points, and it’s
going to be up to Atlanta to try and hang with them. If Matt Ryan has to
attempt 40+ passes, at least ten will be targeted for Jones.
TE
1.
Gimme: Vernon
Davis—Not the best season so far, but his productivity increased last week.
Tampa is middle of the pack versus opposing tight ends, but I like seeing more
involvement from Davis in the 49ers offense.
2.
Game-Changer:
Tony Gonzalez—I’m still not understanding the preseason predictions that
his performance would take some huge hit from previous seasons. Green Bay has
been improving their defense against opposing tight ends, but it’s still not
very good. The only reason not to start Gonzalez is if you have him backing up
Jermichael Finley, Owen Daniels, and maybe Jimmy Graham. (Jason Witten is on
bye this week.)
3.
Gamble: Greg
Olsen—I was right about him last week, and I’m sticking with him here. I
don’t like him as much playing on the road, but his stock increases with the
chance that Jeremy Shockey won’t play this week.
D/ST
1.
Gimme: 49ers
D/ST—They are not owned in enough leagues as it is, and they could easily
fit into the “Game-Changer” category, but I don’t like the matchups for the top
defenses this week. I’ve noticed somewhat of a slow, methodical approach from
Tampa, and that usually means less points scored. The downside of this matchup
is that the Bucs don’t turn the ball over much or allow many sacks.
2.
Game-Changer:
Giants D/ST—This should be the most commonly picked-up defense to cover for
your bye week, or if you have a top defense you don’t trust this week (Jets).
3.
Gamble: Titans
D/ST—If you get a chance to watch the Steelers play offense, it’s almost
laughable how quickly the opposing defensive line engulfs Big Ben. This matchup
looks even better if Ben can’t play this week.
Kicker Pickup of
the Week: Jay Feely—Minnesota gave up 21 points to a kicker last week, and
didn’t look very good doing it. I’m picking the matchup here more than the
kicker himself.
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