Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Week 1 Three G's


Opening night is upon us, and all of your preparation is about to come to fruition. You’ve tweaked and re-tweaked your opening weekend roster, but just in case there’s still work to be done, take a gander at this week’s Three G’s:

QB
1.       Gimme: Aaron Rodgers & Drew Brees—You never considered benching either of these guys, but they may even exceed your expectations in week one. They are two of the top quarterbacks, playing on opening night in primetime. Even though I’m a believer in Green Bay’s defense, expect a shootout in this one.
2.       Game-Changer: Kevin Kolb—Kolb played well early in 2010 before injuries allowed Vick to take over. I don’t like him as a fantasy starter for the whole season, but this week he plays Carolina. I foresee a reoccurring theme with anyone playing Carolina.
3.       Gamble: Kerry Collins—How old is this guy? Seventeen seasons and a retirement and un-retirement into his career, he finds himself in the best situation yet. Peyton is doubtful for week one and I don’t think he will play even though it’s a division opponent. I expect Houston to lead for most of this game, and Indy is a pass-first team even without Manning at the helm.

RB
1.       Gimme: Frank Gore—Seattle gave up the 6th most fantasy points to running backs last season. Gore has a history of injury problems, but just signed a three-year extension, which tells me San Francisco has more faith in his sustained health than I do. Let’s face it, the 49ers aren’t going to be throwing the ball with consistency any time soon.
2.       Game-Changer: LeGarrette Blount—I really like this guy for the entire season, and I think he will avoid the sophomore slump. He ran for over 1,100 yards in 2010 and I expect around 1,200 this year. It will be a great way to get started against a Detroit team that gave up the 7th most fantasy points to running backs last year.
3.       Gamble: Beanie Wells—If he’s going to be the guy in Arizona, he’s going to have to show it this week against Carolina, which gave up the 5th most fantasy points to running backs last season. I’m not too worried about newly-signed Chester Taylor getting too involved in the offense in week one.

WR
1.       Gimme: DeSean Jackson—Andy Reid doesn’t shy away from creative plays to get his big-play receiver involved. St. Louis is a team trending up for the season, but I expect Philly to put points on the board early and often in this contest.
2.       Game-Changer: Mario Manningham—His last game of 2010 was against Washington. His stats: 4 receptions, 101 yards, and a TD. This week, he draws coverage from Kevin Barnes, who is getting his third career start at cornerback.
3.       Gamble: Greg Little—This guy is shooting up the board as a sleeper for the 2011 season. I’m not entirely sold, but Cincinnati gave up the 3rd most fantasy points to receivers last year, and Little has moved into the top slot on the depth chart.

TE
1.       Gimme: Dallas Clark—Top tier tight end? Check. Quarterback that needs a security blanket? Check. Opposing defense gave up 4th most points to tight ends in 2010? Check.
2.       Game-Changer: Jimmy Graham—If Green Bay’s defense has a weakness, this is it. They gave up 9th most fantasy points to tight ends last season, and Graham looks to be an emerging star at the position. I like him as a sleeper for the season, so grab him while you can.
3.       Gamble: Todd Heap—Following the pattern at other positions, Carolina gave up plenty of points to tight ends last year as well (5th most). I have Heap as one of my sleepers this year, and I like the matchup this week especially.

D/ST
1.       Gimme: New England—Chad Henne. ‘Nuff said.
2.       Game-Changer: Atlanta—Chicago doesn’t put up many points, Jay Cutler has a reputation for throwing interceptions, and the offensive line allows sacks-a-plenty. I predict Atlanta scoring the second most fantasy points this week, behind only New England.
3.       Gamble: Cleveland—Cincinnati is not going to be very good this year, and their starting quarterback and top wide receiver are rookies. There is going to be a learning curve this season, and it starts at the bottom in week one.

K
Kicker Pickup of the Week: Josh Scobee—Tennessee gave up the third most points to kickers last year, and Jacksonville may be able to move the ball just enough to produce field goal opportunities.

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