Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Week 3 Three G's


I am not a complete fantasy football idiot. If I was, I wouldn’t have had the courage to start writing these articles, and you wouldn’t believe a word I say. You still may not believe me, but I redeemed myself in week two by going 3-0 in my fantasy leagues, scoring the most points in two of them. I also happened to hit on 12 of 16 of my week two picks, though I was 9 yards off in my Rex Grossman prediction. Week three shapes up like this:

QB
1.       Gimme: Matt Schaub—New Orleans will bring pressure, but this offensive line is nowhere near as bad as Chicago’s. Give me a solid quarterback in a shootout any day.
2.       Game-Changer: Ryan Fitzpatrick—Buffalo may have found themselves a quarterback. The competition will be a bit tougher against New England, but I could still see Fitzpatrick throw for 350 yards and a score.
3.       Gamble: Cam Newton—He’s going to be a hot, hot pickup this week. If you’re looking for a long-term solution at quarterback, I’d rather go with Ryan Fitzpatrick, but this week Newton faces the Jags. I actually expect the passing numbers to dip a bit in this game, but I think he still gets 50 or more yards rushing.
RB
1.       Gimme: Rashard Mendenhall—Which top-15 running back is facing Indianapolis this week?
2.       Game-Changer: Mike Tolbert—He is in a timeshare and did not look great last week, not being able to get in on multiple goal-line carries. This week, he draws Kansas City. I could see San Diego grabbing an early lead and giving a large dose of Tolbert to close it out.
3.       Gamble: Ben Tate—I think New Orleans has a better run defense than the stats show. I also think Arian Foster plays in this game. However, I could see Tate getting the hot hand early and getting 15-20 touches this game.
WR
1.       Gimme: Wes Welker—Buffalo gave up a ton of fantasy points to Oakland receivers in week two, and that was Oakland. This is Mr. 517+423 Brady they are facing in week three. With Aaron Hernandez out, this is the week Welker goes off.
Jesse, not Buddy.
2.       Game-Changer: Steve Johnson—Johnson has surprised me this year. I thought he was overvalued going into the draft, but he has had a nice set of games. There is a chance he has a mediocre game this week, but I’ll predict two touchdowns for him this game.
3.       Gamble: Jesse Holley—Who? He is currently 0.1% owned and 0.0% started in standard ESPN leagues. It may look like I’m digging deep for this one, but Miles Austin is out and Dez Bryant is still hampered by an injury. Romo has to throw to someone…
TE
1.       Gimme: Jason Witten—…and that someone is likely to be Witten. He just might catch 10 passes this week.
2.       Game-Changer: Rob Gronkowski—With Aaron Hernandez out for a couple weeks, Gronkowski looks to get a few more targets. I imagine that shapes up for a nice fantasy week.
3.       Gamble: Tony Gonzalez—This may not seem like a gamble, but his preseason rank was outside of the top 15 tight ends, and he still is projected to get less than five points this week in standard scoring. I’m sorry, but this guy deserves some more love. I don’t care how old he is, he’s a focal point in the red zone on a good offense.
D/ST
1.       Gimme: Chargers D/ST—Can Kansas City get any worse? They sure can, by losing Jamaal Charles for the season.
2.       Game-Changer: Titans D/ST—I don’t think they are great as a whole, but they were impressive against Baltimore. Orton is not helping quiet the jeers in Denver, and is prone to turning the ball over.
3.       Gamble: Cardinals D/ST—Arizona doesn’t have a great secondary. Seattle is trying its best to be a worse team than KC. Something’s gotta give, and I think Seattle will be doing the giving. Four turnovers this game?
Kicker Pickup of the Week: Dan Carpenter—He was atrocious last week, but is a former pro-bowler. If he doesn’t play well this game, he might be looking for another profession. Perhaps pro bowling?

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